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Zonal asymmetries control the response of atmospheric blocking to Arctic warming in an aquaplanet experiment

Michele Filippucci, Stephen I. Thomson, Neil Lewis, Simona Bordoni

Featured July 14, 2026

Original Paper

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Simply

When the Arctic warms, the way big weather systems get stuck (called atmospheric blocking) changes differently depending on whether the atmosphere has localized storm tracks, causing them to shift upstream instead of just increasing everywhere.

In depth
The study reveals that the way atmospheric blocking responds to Arctic Amplification depends critically on whether the atmosphere has zonal asymmetries (like localized storm tracks). While a uniform increase in blocking is seen in symmetric setups, the presence of storm tracks leads to an upstream displacement of blocking events, a phenomenon explained by changes in the atmosphere's "carrying capacity" for wave activity.

Key Takeaways

  • 1
    Zonal asymmetries fundamentally alter how atmospheric blocking responds to Arctic warming, leading to an upstream shift rather than a uniform increase.
  • 2
    The Traffic Jam theory provides a physically consistent framework, linking changes in mean circulation (like weakened zonal winds) to modifications in the atmosphere's carrying capacity for wave activity.
  • 3
    A novel negative feedback mechanism, involving the parameter , is identified, which buffers the decrease in carrying capacity and limits the potential increase in blocking.

Conceptual Flow

HIGH LEVEL
1
Modeling Atmospheric Blocking Response

Scientists used simple planet models, some with smooth weather patterns and some with bumpy storm tracks, to see how Arctic warming changes big stuck weather systems.

Simple Planet Model
Arctic Warming Added
Simulate Weather
Blocking Patterns (Smooth)
Blocking Patterns (Bumpy)
2
Asymmetries Shift Blocking Location

They found that without bumpy storm tracks, Arctic warming just made stuck weather systems more common everywhere, but with storm tracks, it made them move upstream instead.

Uniform Blocking Increase
Upstream Blocking Shift
Compare Scenarios
Zonal Asymmetries Matter