Environment

Climate change and human mobility will shape dengue emergence risk in Europe

Charley Presigny, Paolo Baglioni, Pietro Rotondo, Michele Allegra, Annalisa Barla, Manlio De Domenico

Featured August 26, 2026

AI-generated analysis — This is SciGrove's AI interpretation of the paper, not peer-reviewed content. Always refer to the original paper.

Simply

Scientists built a special computer model that mixes information about weather changes, how people move, and even climate-driven migration to predict where and when dengue fever might spread in Europe, showing the risk will likely grow a lot.

In depth

The paper introduces an integrated, multi-scale model to project dengue emergence risk in Europe, fusing a mechanistic transmission engine with a vector abundance framework within a mobility-driven metapopulation system. A key innovation is a dedicated migration model that accounts for climate-driven population redistribution, significantly altering risk estimates, especially under high-emission scenarios. The study highlights a gradual transition from importation-driven to environment-driven risk over the 21st century.

Key Takeaways

1
The paper develops an integrated multi-scale model combining climate, population, and diverse mobility data to project dengue risk in Europe.
2
A novel climate-related migration model is introduced, demonstrating how population redistribution can amplify dengue emergence risk.
3
The analysis suggests a future shift from importation-driven to environment-driven dengue risk, emphasizing the need for comprehensive predictive models.

Conceptual Flow

HIGH LEVEL

Methodology: How was it done?

The scientists built a big computer model that mixes information about weather, people moving around, and mosquito numbers to guess where dengue might spread.

Climate Data

Population Data

Mobility Data

Combine & Simulate

Dengue Risk Map

Results: What did they find?

They found that dengue risk in Europe will likely increase a lot, especially if the climate gets much warmer, and people moving because of climate change could make it even worse.

Current Risk

Future Climate

Future People Movement

Project & Compare

Much Higher Risk

New Hotspots

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