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State transitions in land-vegetation systems emerge at Paris Agreement warming levels in CMIP6

Pouriya Alinaghi, Sybren Drijfhout, Joran Angevaare, Chris Jones, Andy Wiltshire

Featured August 14, 2026

Original Paper

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Simply

Using a smart computer program, scientists found that many big, unexpected changes in Earth's plants and land, like forests dying or frozen ground melting, start happening even if we only reach the Paris Agreement warming limits.

In depth
The paper introduces an automated workflow to identify Strong Nonlinear Surprises (SNSs)—both abrupt and gradually developing state transitions—in land-vegetation systems using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) ensemble. It reveals that many critical transitions, such as Amazon forest dieback and permafrost thaw, are triggered at global warming levels within the Paris Agreement targets, highlighting the Earth system's sensitivity to climate change.

Key Takeaways

  • 1
    The study developed an automated workflow to detect both abrupt and gradually developing Strong Nonlinear Surprises (SNSs) in land-vegetation components of CMIP6 models.
  • 2
    Many identified state transitions, including Amazon forest dieback and permafrost thaw, are projected to begin unfolding at global warming levels of 2°C or below, within reach of Paris Agreement targets.
  • 3
    Inter-model differences in hydrological coupling and the representation of dynamic vegetation schemes are crucial for explaining contrasting regional responses, such as Amazon greening versus dieback.

Conceptual Flow

HIGH LEVEL
1
Methodology: How was it done?

A computer program scanned many climate model results to find big, unexpected changes in land and plants.

Climate Model Data
Find Big Changes
List of Surprises
2
Results: What did they find?

They found many of these big changes start happening at low warming levels, showing Earth's systems are sensitive.

Warming Levels
Trigger Changes
Forest Dieback
Ice Melt
Greening