Astrophysics

Observational planning for the 2026 August 5 Falcon 9 Upper Stage lunar impact

Vahid Khoramiyan Kermanshah, et al.

Featured August 6, 2026

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Simply

Scientists are getting ready to watch a big rocket hit the Moon in 2026, using computer models to guess how bright the flash will be and how high the dust plume will fly, so telescopes know exactly what to look for.

In depth

This paper details the observational planning for a rare, known artificial lunar impact event: a Falcon 9 upper stage hitting the Moon in 2026. The authors leverage shock physics simulations (HOSS) to predict the impact's ejecta plume dynamics and guide ground- and space-based telescopes, providing a unique opportunity to validate existing impact models for slow-moving objects.

Key Takeaways

1
The 2026 Falcon 9 upper stage impact offers a rare controlled experiment for lunar impact studies, with known impactor properties.
2
The paper provides detailed observational strategies for ground- and space-based assets, including optimal wavelengths and imaging cadences.
3
HOSS simulations are used to predict ejecta plume dynamics, such as excavated mass and particle velocities, guiding observation efforts.

Conceptual Flow

HIGH LEVEL

Methodology: Predicting Impact Effects

Scientists used computer programs to predict what would happen when the rocket hits the Moon, like how much dust would fly up.

Rocket Details

Moon Surface Info

Run Computer Model

Predicted Flash

Predicted Dust Cloud

Results: Guiding Observations

The predictions help observers know where and how to look, turning a random crash into a planned science experiment to learn about Moon impacts.

Predicted Flash

Predicted Dust Cloud

Plan Observations

Better Science Data